Block · growth
LTV:CAC Payback
Cumulative contribution margin against acquisition cost, marking the payback month and the probability of recovering CAC within the horizon.
State
Size
Mode
CAC payback · Q1 2026
10.1 mo
Payback · 1.2× LTV:CAC
CAC has a 100% chance of being recovered by month 11.
Acme analytics · updated daily
Demo data is illustrative. Replace with your own typed data prop.
How it computes
Cumulative-margin payback: months until cumulative contribution margin recovers CAC, with LTV and LTV:CAC.
cumᵢ = Σ₀ⁱ marginⱼ; payback = first crossing of CAC (linear-interpolated); LTV = cum_end; LTV:CAC = LTV/CACAssumptions
- Monthly margin per customer is constant (no churn or expansion baked in).
- Contribution within a month accrues linearly (for the interpolation).
- CAC is a positive number.
Honest about
- Payback is reported as ">N mo" when the curve never recovers CAC within the horizon — it isn't faked.
- A risk band uses std(margin)·√horizon as the spread and a Gaussian threshold for P(recovered) — an approximation, surfaced as such.
- LTV:CAC is 0 when CAC ≤ 0 (divide-by-zero guard).