Block · ops

SLO Error Budget

Error-budget burn-down over the rolling window, with a Holt projection and the probability the budget is exhausted before the period closes.

State

Size

Mode

Q2 2026 · Error budget

28%

Error budget remaining

Error budget has a 50% chance of being exhausted by Jun 14.

Platform reliability · updated in real-time

Demo data is illustrative. Replace with your own typed data prop.

How it computes

Error-budget burn forecast via Holt(α=0.4, β=0.4) with P(exhausted) and an estimated depletion date.

budget(t) = 1 − (1−SLO)·cumФfailures/window;  forecast = holtLinear(...);  P(exhausted) = Φ_below(forecast_H, se_H, 0)

Assumptions

Remaining budget (0–1) decays roughly linearly, and Holt extrapolates that trend.
A standard rolling window (≈30 days).
Residual σ comes from the in-sample Holt fit.

Honest about

The forecast SE widens by the ETS(A,A,N) law σ·√(1 + Σ(α+jβ)²), faster than √h — long horizons are honestly uncertain.
Needs ≥2 points; below that it produces no forecast rather than a guess.
If the budget never crosses zero in-horizon, the depletion date defaults to the horizon end (no false alarm).